Recent political developments in the State and the country compelled me to revisit this piece published on this page exactly today last year. Last year, it came with the caption: The Man Who Sees 2015.
That piece was my encounter with a political seer, an octogenarian, a political titan whose days of politicking dates back to the 60s and early 70s.
Last year, he made some political predictions he claimed will come to pass as we journey to 2015. Then, he made it clear though that he will only speak to me on the basis that I do not disclose his identity. I obliged and kept to my promise.
My short and precise encounter with this man of yesteryears will forever remain indelible in my memory.
Though some of his predictions are yet to come to pass or at the stage near maturity, I was also forced to revisit this piece when the old sage called yours sincerely on phone last Friday to exchange banters and remind me that by today, it will be exactly one year he spoke to me in his little but cosy home here in Owerri on political events in Imo State and the country at large.
“Hello My Editor” was the scruffy voice from my cell phone when I saw his caller ID and picked his call.
He continued “Do you remember who is on the line” he asked. I replied in the affirmative ostensibly to remind him that I knew he was the one on the line.
He went on “Do you remember that on Tuesday, September 17, 2013 is exactly one year you published my predictions in your column in Trumpeta Newspaper”
I was impressed with his reminder and shocked that a man above seventy nine could have such sharp mental retentive memory. Quickly I reminded him that much as his predictions were close to accuracy, there were burning issues and recent developments that could impair his political predictions from coming to reality.
I reminded him that he did not foresee that the Imo State Governor, Owelle Rochas Okorocha will dump the All Progressives Grand Alliance for the All Progressive Congress, APC.
I also told him he did not see in his crystal ball that former Governor Achike Udenwa and Governor Okorocha will belong to the same political boat and he did not see that major opposition political parties in the country will merge to form a mega party with sinous political tentacles.
“But I told you that the PDP will go up in smoke if it does not conduct an internal surgery before 2015 elections” he interrupted me sharply. I was lost, dumfounded and by the time my journalistic instinct could roar back to life to counter his submissions, he fired another shot when he said “I also predicted that President Goodluck Jonathan will want to seek for a second term and his ambition will overheat the polity”
“I also told you that Okorocha will run for a second time and he will win” he stated.
At this point, I halted him from bombarding me as I told him that he did not forsee the abortion bill that was secretly made a law by the Imo State House of Assembly and its electoral implications for the government of the day.
“But I also predicted that the present administration will make some mistakes which is normal for every government and in the end, they will overcome and coast home to victory in the next elections” he stated.
He made some more predictions, saying that the aggrieved governors in PDP will leave to join the APC.
After our 13 minutes interaction, I resolved to publish verbatim his predictions which were published on this column exactly today last year. Read on:
“Today’s article has two dimensions. One, It is prophetic and secondly, it is based on political permutations that may influence the political direction of Imo State, nay the nation in 2015.
It is purely a political exercise orchestrated by a well known political guru from the State whose predictions and postulations are anchored on the pattern the political wind is blowing in our beloved Imo State. It is the prediction of a political seer, a respected Imolite who was a political titan in his days.
I had a chance meet with this ‘political seer’ at the weekend and I promised him that I will not disclose his identity after he pleaded he will only speak to me on the condition of anonymity.
We spoke extensively on what we should expect in the political terrain in Imo State and the nation at large. I must admit that it was a worthwhile experience for me as my interaction with him enriched my knowledge from his vast reservoir of wisdom.
“Rochas Okorocha will return as Imo State governor in 2015” he fired. I was taken aback.
“How do you mean sir” was my subtle and short reply after I have carefully sipped a glass of Baron De Val he offered me on my arrival.
He continued ‘you see, you journalists in the State find it difficult to read in between the lines. You fail to do a thorough research on issues before you write. Have you asked yourself which alternative the people of Imo State have after Rochas? Where are the alternatives? …Where?
I paused and pondered over his question, suspecting that he is a core APGA man and a die- hard Rochas follower.
I managed to reply “Sir, are you saying Imo State are short of men and women that will not perform better than Owelle. Are you saying that we are doomed if Okorocha is not re elected as governor in 2015? Do you not think he will not be better off if he is elected President in 2015? And besides, the seat of power is like the chair of a barber, after barbing the hair of a customer, another customer sits on the barber chair”
He roared a loud laughter and said “I have been in politics for decades; I will tell you what you do not know. I will tell you that the PDP in the State is weak and besides, the people will prefer the devil they know than the angel they have not seen. The PDP shot itself in the foot in the last dispensation. Remember the Imo electorate is sophisticated and it will take someone with a magic wand to convince Imolites that they need a change of leadership. The question is can the PDP be relied upon. Much as we know that the present administration has made silly mistakes, if there is an election tomorrow, APGA will win”
“You may be wrong sir” I replied him boldly. I told him that the political terrain in the State is dynamic and who wins what in the next political dispensation is not certain until the tape of victory is braced by the eventual winner. I recounted briefly to him how the PDP roundly defeated APGA after last year’s governorship election. I referred him to the re run election in Ahiazu/Ezinihitte Federal Constituency where Hon. Nnanna Igbokwe floored Chidi Ibe of APGA and lately, the Oguta re run Assembly election which PDP’s Eugene Dibiagwu defeated other Izuogu of the then All Peoples Party (APP) was defeated by the little known Achike Udenwa of the PDP at the elections. Besides in the PDP, I continued, one had expected the likes of Humphrey Anumudu, Greg Mbadiwe and Rochas Okorocha to pick the PDP guber ticket then, but the party hierarchy led by Ahiazu Mbaise born technocrat cum politician Innocent Diala Nwoga selected Udenwa for the ticket.
“Times have changed my son the political terrain is now different and dynamic” he cut me short and adjusted his easy chair to gain more comfort as he took his drink down his throath.
He continued “The PDP was embraced by Imolites in 1999. Remember no one thought that the Abdulsalami Abubakar Transition Programme will succeed. We all thought that it will be another experiment or contraption put in place by the military. That was why a lot of political morons came to public office then. The masses never believed in the military guided Transition To Civil Rule Programme and the political contest was not as fierce as it is now”.
He went on ‘Now, the electorate is suspicious of those who govern them. If they goof, they will kick them out. This is applicable to incumbents who fail to deliver. Democracy is all about the power of the people to elect and reject leaders. That is the stage our democracy has attained. It is no longer nascent, but has come to a level where the people cannot be taken for granted. It was not so in our time. In the first republic which I participated in under the auspices of the NCNC, it was characterized by blood- letting and violence. Now such incidents are beginning to dwindle in the polity, though elections in the country are still fraught with gory tales. Anyway, it is not yet uhuru”
He was emphatic that the present Administration of Rochas Okorocha in the State has made a lot of policy summersaults and cautioned that if he fails to take urgent steps to address such anomalies and mistakes, public confidence on his government will dwindle, adding that despite whatever shortcomings it might have, the Rescue mission will have an edge over other contenders in 2015.
He said “Despite the fact that he appears on the surface to be the only alternative for Imolites now, if he fails to change gear and stop some of the silly mistakes and summersaults, he will be pay dearly for it. If the free education initiative which attracted us to his aspiration is not effectively managed for the overall benefit of imolites, he will be shocked to see how his government will lose acceptance. So, I caution him to be careful’
The race for the 2015 presidential race was not left out in our discussion as he told me that Nigeria is on the verge of precipice if the 2015 presidential election is not properly managed.
He said “Mark my words the political landscape of the country will be charged in 2015. It is going to be tough. It is going to be so because President Jonathan will contest for a second term. His body language now indicates he will do so. And if that happens, it will generate so much uproar especially in the North. He will be strongly resisted Even some of his allies now will oppose him when the time comes. Igbos will backdown on their quest to get the presidency. They will support Jonathan. Most of the South East Governors will rally round the presidential aspiration of Jonathan and because they are leaving office after completing their tenure, they will do the bidding of the ruling party to avoid being probed and hounded around by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).
I tried to deviate from politics, but each time I did this, this political Nostradamus will redirect our discussion to political issues.
In his words he said “I eat and drink politics. When I was in the NCNC, I was among those in the Think Tank group. I was among those who brainstormed on the way forward for the party. Then, politics was politics and not what we see today: These days, what we see political humiliation exhibited by politicians.
He predicted that one of the opposition parties in the country will grow in leaps and bounds, cautioning the PDP to be careful and conduct an internal surgery if it intends to win future elections.
