President Goodluck Jonathan(left) having a hanshake with Chief I.D Nwoga(middle), while former Governor Ikedi Ohakim(2nd Right) Rt Hon Emeka Ihedioha(3rd right) and Hon Bethel Amadi(2nd right) watch with keen interest at the Imo PDP Stakeholders meeting held at Aso Rock Villa, Abuja… last Thursday Night.
I will endeavour to be fair as I can in this piece as it intends to unveil the political undercurrents that will influnce the political direction of the State in 2015.
Considering the deluge of diverse reactions that trailed the meeting between President Goodluck Jonathan and stakeholders of the PDP from Imo State which took place at Aso Rock Villa, Abuja , last week, it is important caution is applied in x raying the political implications and consequnces of that meeting. I will discuss this isssue as it shapes 2015 which is the next political dispensation and not on the rumour of displacing whoever for someone.
For Governor Rochas Okorocha, that meeting is a serious political signal that the battle for him to retain his seat asImoStategovernor is a serious one. If he looks into his political crystal ball, he will decipher easily that the race for 2015 Imo governorship seat has begun in earnest. And if he understands the political terrain in the State perfectly, he should note thatImoStateis a place where lots of external forces, both positive and negative, considerably influence who gets what in the political arena. It is the only State in the federation where elections for the governorship seat have been conducted twice before a winner emerged.
It is a State filled with political landmines where an incumbent governor is never sure of his political fate or destiny. The last two political dispensations will attest to this underlying fact. Udenwa was unable to install his successor simply because there were overwhelming forces outside the State that made him alter his sucession plans severally. Ikedi Ohakim and the PDP never believed that they will be pronounced loser of the Imo governorship seat in 2011. That is the dynamics that make governorship contest in Imo unique and exceptional. Nothing is certain! Like a football match, it is not over until it is over.
Back to the crux of the matter. No governor, no matter the pretenses can afford to sleep with two eyes closed over the fact that the President wined and dined with opposition forces in his State. However, most APGA stalwarts in the State disagree with me. Some Okorocha loyalits whom i spoke with on the matter argued that there is ‘nothing extraordinary about the meeting’ That the President hosted his partymen from one of the States his party (PDP) was roundly defeated at the polls in 2011 does not mean that the President is averse to the leadership style of Owelle Rochas Okorocha. One of the APGA leaders whom I will not mention his name fired that Mr. President hosted PDP members fromImoStatedoes not imply that the Governor does not have the support of the President. According to them, the President is merely tightening some loose ends in his party as part of his strategy to boost the PDP in various States across the federation before the battle of 2015 draws near.
These APGA stalwarts argued that the elections are in 2015, barely two years from now and if President Jonathan decides to interact with his partymen from Imo, it will not in a anyway earn exceptional votes for the party to dethrone APGA at the coming elections. They contend that gone are the days elections are won with a mere handshake with the ‘mighty’ in Nigeria or the outcome of elections influnced by ‘forces from above’ Tough talk, abi.
I have no basis to disagree with the postulations or show of confidence exhibited by APGA henchmen on this, but as an unbiased umpire, I wonder why most APGA loyalists in the State failed to ask themselves why did the President decide to invite only PDP stakeholders fromImoStateto parley with. I asked If President Jonathan wanted to energize the PDP acroos the country, why did he not invite stakeholders of the party in the 36 States? Also, assuming he decided to speak with leaders of PDP in States the party lost to the opposition in the last general elections, why did he not extend such invitation to leaders of the party in those States at the meeting? And besides, such meetings are routed through the party leadership? Why was the party national leadership absent at the meeting? Much as the meeting has different political colourations which only time will expose its real intents, i have not lost consciousness of the words of an elder statesman who said in politics, signs and wonders are huge determinant factors.
They serve as indicators to what we should expect in any political dispensation. With the ongoing power struggle at the centre between President Jonathan and some powerful forces over 2015, one needs no soothsayer to predict that any political move by President Jonathan at this point in time has so much political undertones. And one of such undertones is that it entails wooing and acomodating interests that wil better serve his political purposes acroos the country in the event he decides to run again for the presidency in 2015 as widely specualted.
Past political events in the country have always shown that most incumbent presidents never find it funny when they discover other contenders for the seats they occupy, moreso when such a leader is interested for another term. We saw how Obasanjo used the might and size of his office to whip, sorry flog those who opposed his third term bid. We witnessed the political ordeal of those whose ambitions remained a mirage till this day because they opposed ‘Baba’s ambition. The rest is history
If the above scenario still exists in the political calculations of incumbent president’s in the country, where does our dear Owelle find himself in the emerging political scenario after saying that he wants to take over from Jonathan in 2015? Does his declaration to aspire for the presidency implies he is on the same page with Mr.President? Your imagination might just be the answer to the question!
Students of political physcology with agree with me that in the quest to aspire or retain power, negative or positive political signals no matter when it appears must be taken serious and a politician who is alert must be able to analyse and interpret such signals quickly and be on his guard. This is why the Abuja meeting, for me, is beyond the elementary interpretations made by APGA leaders and stakholders in the State. We have seen the relevance, strenght and the power of forces from Abuja during governorship elections in Imo State. We saw it in 2011. In the words of renowed journalist, Ethelbert Okere, what we saw in the 2011 Imo guber elections was an exhibition of democracy by military tank. Okere had written in his book that it was the combined external forces of the military and the catholic church that shaped the outcome of the 2011 governorship election.
From what we read in the newspapers that transpired at the meeting, Imo PDP stakeholders went to Abuja to report Governor Okorocha to Mr.President. We were told that issues bordering on the set up of Imo Security Network, the State Government’s non compliance to the Order of the Federal Court of Appeal that reinstated the 27 local Council Chairmen and other issues which the PDP in Imo State are not happy with were issues that dominated discussions at the meeting. And the President was reported to have made some serious remarks that tends to indicate that things will change for the better for Imo PDP in 2015.
It will be premature if one concludes that the Abuja meeting portends serious consequences as regards the direction the wind of 2015 will blow in the State. I will also resist the temptatipn to say that Okorocha is in political dilenma, rather i will conclude that the recent Aso Rock Villa meeting between the President and Imo PDP is not a good political sign for Okorocha in his quest to retain his seat as governor of Imo State in 2015.
For me, the meeting was a morale booster to the unflinching quest of the PDP to take back the seat of government in the State in 2015. I had consistenly said on this page that Imo PDP is so bitter that it lost power to APGA. They have not pretended about it. And this is the bitter truth this APGA adminstration must accept. And the PDP have never pretended that it wants to dethrone the APGA adminstration and take what it feels belongs to it. Therefore, the PDP will leave no stone unturned to ensure its governorship candidate irrespective of the zone he or she comes from defeats Okorocha in 2015. And that the party went to Abuja to express their regret that they crumbled at the governosrhip polls and are now desirous take it again, shows that the combined forces against an APGA adminstration in the State is no joke. This is one of the signs that Okorocha must not take for granted. And that most key members of the PDP ‘blocked’ Owelle’s rumoured intention to rejoin the PDP is another sign that it is bent in causing a political upset for APGA in 2015 in Imo State.
I want to advise the present APGA Adminstration not to rely on the ‘visible dividends of democracy’ which they claim Okorocha has given to the people of Imo State within a year plus he has become Imo governor. With a sophisticated electorate that has been fed by the opposition that most of the achievements recorded by Owelle are vague, such propanganda might germinate into a manure that may nourish the quest for Okorocha’s exit from power in 2015. Okorocha should take a cue from Ohakim who believed that a second term in office was a sure bet until the final whistle was blown on the guber race.
Imo State has a political pattern that determines and shapes the political landscape. With high literacy rate and a conscious electorate that are inconsistent and vulnerable to the whims and caprices of politcians, Okorocha cannot afford to anchor his return to office on the strenght of his achievements in office. If he fails to adjust his style and brand of politicking to the perculiar political nature of the State, he may be sitting on a keg of political gunpowder
I want to point out that in Imo State, a political battle does not begin and end during elections. The Imo political terrain is slippery and is regulated by political signs and wonders. We have just seen one of the signs which is the President’s meeting with Imo PDP stakeholders.
If the signs that some forces are bent on ending his reign as governor in four years time , this is the time for political action. It calls for political tact and strategy. This is the time to energize his APGA which to me is in taters despite the fact that it is the ruling party. We are yet to see spark in the party after one year on the saddle of governance. Most of the members still lament in low tones that Owelle has refused to fund the party as a basis to give it the much needed political teeth to bite off the ears and nose of the opposition in the State. And if this lingers, then one will not be wrong to say that political doom awaits APGA in the coming elections in the State
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