By jonas omenka.
The 2011 governorship election in Imo State saw the end of PDP dominance in the politics of the State. How they lost their grip on power, I am sure, remains a puzzle to their leadership. There may be near accurate guesses and conjectures but no one can say with exactitude how it all happened. As at today, the question as to whether the emergence of Rochas-Okorocha is a reflection of the true state of affairs in the State is yet to be answered. Expectedly, some say emphatically that it is, while others still spiritedly contest it, but the truth is that Chief Okorocha is the governor of this State and is likely to remain so till the next governorship election either in 2014 or 2015.
So many factors are likely to affect the turn of events in the next election. For instance, the change by governor Okorocha, from APGA to APC and the refusal of some APGA faithful to follow him to his new party has created a division in followership that is likely to affect the electoral fortunes of both the APGA and governor Okorocha and his new party. Another factor is the performance of the governor and whether or not he will seek a re-election. The unspoken zoning arrangement in the governorship of the State is also a factor that should not be disregarded. While Okigwe is insisting on being given a chance to complete their second term, Owerri claims that Okigwe blew their chance when they allowed Orlu to snatch power from them and therefore it will be most unfair to ask them (Owerri) to watch for another 4 years while Okigwe goes again. Meanwhile, Orlu is still waiting with its numerical strength to cash in on the misunderstanding between Owerri and Okigwe. It is only a matter of time before the picture because clear but in the meantime, aspirants from the three zones in different political parties have started jostling for the plum job. Some of them have made their aspirations open while others are waiting for the opportune time.
Within the APC which is the ruling party in the State, Governor Okorocha has clearly indicated his intention to seek a second chance thus putting paid to speculations that he may sponsor the speaker Chief Ben. Uwajumogu from Okigwe zone or Deputy Governor Eze Madumere from Owerri zone to succeed him.
In the all Progressives Grand Alliance APGA, Senator Chris Anyanwu’s foot soldiers give the impression that she is consulting across the State and may soon make her intention public. Senator Anyanwu is from Owerri zone and so is Chief Martin Agbaso who, it is gathered, is gearing up to slug it out with Senator Anyanwu in the APGA governorship primaries.
In the PDP, governorship aspirants are legion. The Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives Hon. Emeka Ihedioha, Captain Emma Iheanacho, Hon. Bethel Amadi, Chief Bethel Zimako, Engr. Emma Ojinere and Chief Jerry Chukwueke are being mentioned and have, by their body languages shown that they are interested. Also names like Senator Hope Uzodinma (Orlu) and Senator S.N. Anyanwu (Okigwe) are being mentioned. Senator Ifeanyi Araraume is equally being mentioned even though he at the moment does not seem to belong to any party. Who among these political gladiators possesses the capacity and acceptability level required to clinch the no.l citizenship position in Imo State?
An attempt at analyzing the political dynamics and x-raying the chances of the aspirants vis-à-vis-the 2014/15 governorship election in the State will be the focus of this write up by Jonas Omenka.
First, Owelle Rochas Okorocha the sitting governor. His popularity rating when he became governor was perhaps unprecedented in the history of Imo politics. He opened up roads both within the urban and the rural areas, awarded contracts for their construction, promised free education at all levels, started putting up structures where there were none, started over 150 city gates and initiated the payment of stipends to pupils and students in Primary and Secondary Schools in the State. He became the darling of the keke driver and market man and woman alike. But soon, contractors started complaining of not being paid, abandoned most of the road and other projects and forwent whatever money already expended on them. Thus the state is gates. Also, the stipend to pupils and students, according to officials of the ministry of education, was paid only for two months while the much orchestrated free education programme is perceived as a charade. This State of affairs, in addition to the abandonment of APGA (the party under whose platform he rose to power) for APC perceived by many as a Yoruba party has robbed him of whatever edge, in terms of popularity, he hitherto had over other aspirants. Today, his popularity rating is at its lowest, the average Imo man is full of regrets. Indeed, if an election is conducted in the State today, he is most likely to lose his deposit.
However, time and position are still on his side. If he is able to use what is left of his 4-year tenure to complete the abandoned projects through the patronage of Imo contractors, and show more focus and direction in his style of governance, he may make some reasonable showing in the next election.
Captain Emma Iheanacho is perceived in Imo State as a fine and successful gentleman who has made his mark as a businessman especially in the area of maritime management but seems not to have come to terms and is impatient with the workings and tenets of governmental administration and politics in Nigeria.
His open disagreement with the powers .that be both in government and within his party the PDP during his short spell as minister robbed off very badly on his political reputation. He will be a very hard sell to PDP delegates especially in Okigwe zone where he is seen as contributing immensely to the electoral woes of their son Chief Ikedi Ohakim.
The Awaka-born Jerry Chukwueke has used his position as PDP mobilization committee chairman in the State to introduce himself to party faithful. Not much is” however, as yet known of his public service background, if any, other than that he made his money as a businessman in America. He still has a lot of work to do to be able to make any impact.
Hon. Emeka Ihedioha is serving his third term as representative of Aboh Mbaise and Ngor Okpala in the Federal House. He is also reputed to have served as special Adviser to the Vice President on Media as well- as practised journalism as a correspondent to one of the national dailies for a couple of years. In the House, he has served as majority Chief Whip and is the Current Deputy Speaker. Experience therefore seems to be on his side both in governmental administration and politics. His constituency of Aboh Mbaise and Ngor Okpala LGAs is replete with evidence of constituency and other projects with his imprint scattered all over the place. His constituents also bear testimony to his empowerment programmes within the area and even beyond.
Above all, Hon. Ihedioha seems to have entrenched himself in almost every ward in the State as his foot soliders will always spring to his defence wherever and whenever mention is made of him. He seems, to many unbiased analysts, to be manifestly the only man who has the capacity and clout to wrestle governor Okorocha to the ground.
Hon. Bethel Amadi represents Mbaike in the Federal House. He has chaired many important House committees and is the current President of Pan- African Parliament. Like Ihedioha, he has held his head high in the House of Representatives but does not seem to wield as much political clout as the latter within the rank and file of the PDP at all levels. Not much is also known of his public service experience. He needs to make himself more visible as well as expand and strengthen his political/campaign structure if he is still interested in the race and hopes to make any impact.
Emma Gjinere belongs to the class regarded by Americans as ‘Also Ran’. He has always made some noise but ends up going into the cooler when it mattered most. He stands little or no chance.
Chief Bethel Zimako is a new entrant. His interest in the Imo State Governorship race at the moment revolves around OZOPOLF circles beyond which he has not mentioned his intention. Let’s see how he progresses.
Senator Chris Anyanwu, against all odds, put up a strong showing in the 2011 Owerri Senatorial election. She is a fine journalist and has not done badly as a Senator but whether she enjoys the needed acceptability across the State to become governor is yet to be ascertained. She has the reputation of being haughty and brash but may use her powerful HOT FM Station in the State to market herself. Her greatest obstacle might be the fact that she and Rt. Hon. Emeka Ihedioha who has already been adopted by Mbaise nation are from the same clan.
Recently leaders in Orlu zone in what is seen as a sponsored gathering, passed a vote of confidence on Hope Uzodinma and urged him to run again for the Senatorial seat of Orlu zone in 2015. If he accepts the call or sponsored the gathering (as rumoured), then it means Senator Uzodinma has given up his rumoured governorship ambition. He would not have had any chance anyway except that the Orlu support for an Owerri candidate would have been neutralized by his candidature.
Senator S.N. Anyanwu’s gubernatorial aspiration is still a rumour. No body language of his has pronouncedly shown that he is interested in the race. He left the PDP for ACN in the wake of the Onongono/Abuja saga in the State but returned to the party to support the second term bid of Chief Ohakim in 2011. Some say he may have left the party again to run for governorship from another party. It is only a matter of time before his actual intention is known.
Two-term Senator, Ifeanyi Araraume~must be a confused man now. He ran the 2011 governorship election in the State under the platform of the now defunct ACN and lost. He has a subsisting matter in the Supreme Court challenging the constitutionality of the supplementary election that brought Rochas Okorocha to power. The party under whose platform he ran the election and instituted the case is no longer in existence and has withdrawn from the case to which his kinsman Ikedi Ohakim and PDP seek to be joined. That is yet to be determined. That matter will determine a lot of issues as, by the turn of events, Araraume seems not to officially belong to any party. However, since his friend Chief Tony Anenih became the PDP Board of Trustees Chairman, he has been openly romancing with the PDP. If he eventually shows interest in running for the governorship of the State, he would have become a habitual aspirant having run in 2007 and 2011. Many think he should make way for up and coming politicians in his zone if he wants to remain relevant in Imo politics especially since it may be a near impossibility for Okigwe to get a second chance except through the court.
It is important to stress that the chances of the contenders to the number 1 position in Imo State depend on the outcome of the subsisting governorship matter between Okorocha, Ohakim, Araraume and PDP. Except Okorocha wins that matter, there may be no 2014/15 governorship election in Imo State.
If he wins, his position will be up for grabs in the next election. In that circumstance, will Okorocha retain his position as governor or will any of the other aspirants take his place? Only events and time will shape the voting pattern of Imo electorate and therefore ‘ the outcome of the next governorship election in the State.
