By May 29, 2013, Governor Rochas Okorocha would have clocked Two years in office, leaving only next May 29th for the Governor, while May 29th 2015 will be for either re-swearing-in of Okorocha or his successor. So, mathematically, we are nearing the busy period when politicians make nocturnal movements and strategice ahead.
Therefore, after the next twelve months from this May 29th, the year 2015, which is just five political months would be dedicated to primaries, campaigns and swearing-in and inaugurations at the State and National Assemblies.
For core politicians, there is not much time left now. That is the reason, the incumbent Governor, Owelle Okorocha has started sounding it loud and clear that he would contest in 2015, but whatever it is he does not know yet. But I bet, Owelle knows.
My take today is more on Owerri Zone, since immediately after the swearing-in of Okorocha two years ago, the zone began rallying around about how to take over power in the state in 2015. Then it looked far, but behold the battle is just seventeen months away.
How much prepared is Owerri over this concerted obligation and task? For starters, it is better to sound it clear here that the battle for the next Governor of Imo State will be fierce than ever before.
Therefore, if Owerri Zone thinks the issue is a walk in the Garden, it will be shocked, because if care is not taken, the coveted Trophy would elude the zone again. And there are many factors that may militate against Owerri realizing this tall dream in 2015.
One, Governor Rochas Okorocha will run again in 2015. Although he said he is yet to make up his mind on what to run. But he said he would be lynched if he does not run in 2015. So, who would lynch Okorocha if he does not run as Vice or Presidential candidate of his new Party, All Progressives Party APC? Therefore Okorocha has tacitly informed Imo people that he will contest for a second term as Governor.
Already, the slot for Presidency in 2015 is as delicate as it is dangerous. Those who has shown interest in the seat are only doing it in whisper, while the North has openly voiced it out that power must return to the region in 2015.
War Monger, Asari Dokubo insists heavens will fall if President Jonathan is not returned in 2015, whether he built second River Niger Bridge or not, even not completing the East-West Road in Bayelsa State.
Therefore the heat Abuja will generate will not let any sensible and strategic politician to lose the one at hand, and jump into the high current in Abuja. So, Okorocha already has Imo Governorship seat in his bag. Will he gamble from the known to the unknown in 2015? Your guess is as good as mine.
Therefore, is Owerri ready to do battle with Okorocha? Has Owerri arrived on that person who will face Okorocha with every trick he may dish out from his bag?
How will Owerri arrive on this individual without eliciting reactions from other interested parties? From which party will this candidate come from? Has Owerri thought of how to reach-out to Orlu and Okigwe zones to convince them to queue behind them?
Has Okigwe Zone totally “forgiven” Owerri over the allegation that she made Okigwe to miss second term at Douglas House?
Is it feasible for Orlu to rally behind Owerri than stand behind their brother Okorocha, to finish his second term and put Orlu’s stay at Douglas House to a record sixteen years?
These are some of the hurdles facing Owerri zone in 2015. Even as the day of reckoning approaches too fast, self-interest must not be ruled out against the collective interest of Owerri people.
There is no doubt that Owerri has the men and women to lead Imo State any day, but how could the various political cells in the zone be married as one to arrive at a consensus understanding in order not to mar the ambition of the zone to win 2015 Imo Governorship seat?
I can remember vividly that in 2007, the Owerri Elders comprising the likes of Chiefs ID Nwoga, Ambrose Ejiogu and co conducted a mini-election of all candidates of Owerri extraction, but of the Peoples Democratic Party PDP stock, where a candidate won.
Hardly had the meeting dispersed than all the aspirants went back to the field and when the main primaries was conducted at Dan Anyiam Stadium no Owerri aspirant came within fifth position.
Will the Thunder Strike a second time as we approach 2015? Is it possible that the legion of governorship aspirants from Owerri can subsume their ambitions for just one person to emerge?
Already organizations are springing up in Owerri Zone to champion the course of the Owerri Governorship quest. The most prominent is Owerri Zonal Political Leaders Forum OZOPOLF. But as predicted, other mushroom organizations are budding out, with blackmails that a particular aspirant is sponsoring OZOPOLF.
But despite these side-kicks against OZOPOLF, the Forum is growing stronger by the day. But will it last till the end? Can the Leaders be trusted to play a neutral role in the whole affair? Can the politicians trust the Body to produce a consensus Owerri candidate in 2015 Imo Guber?
Politics is all about self interest, spiced with conspiracies and horse tradings. These are the reasons politicians hardly trust each other. So, will this be an exception for Owerri Zone to produce a single candidate who everybody must endorse and support?
Now, this brings me to some of the questions I asked earlier. It is an open secret that Okigwe people are nursing the ambition to “complete” their second term come rain, come sun. But the only factor that usually counts against Okigwe Zone is its size of just six (6) local Government Areas, as against Orlu’s twelve and Owerri’s nine.
Okigwe has been expressing animosity against Owerri since 2011 Governorship election.
The Zone believes that Owerri deliberately worked against Okigwe by voting APGA, when Owerri is densely populated with PDP members. The argument that Owerri Municipal with a mainly metropolitan population was the culprit, enters deaf ears, as far as Okigwe is concerned in this theory.
Therefore, it may be an uphill task for Owerri zone to convince Okigwe to forget and forgive the 2011 debacle against Ikedi Ohakim governorship.
I learnt that Okigwe is rather making overtures to their Orlu neighbours for 2015, and has overruled any romance with Owerri, as it vows to have its pound of flesh.
Orlu Zone in the other hand may not easily gamble with a devil it does not know, and may repeat the 2011 betrayal it unleashed on PDP in favour of Okorocha, who has now started rebuilding Orlu town abandoned since the Biafran War.
Indeed, under this scenario, Owerri Zone must realize that the task before it is herculean, when you put into consideration also the fact that the zone may be facing an incumbent Governor on the D- day.
Although it worked against the run of play and predictions in Imo in 2011, that an incumbent was defeated; it is usually difficult to wrestle power from an incumbent.
Take it or leave it, Okorocha has used his power of oratory and brand of politics to convince some section of the state about his perceived achievements. Especially the down-trodden masses, but not the elites who believe that he has not done not enough. But how many of the elites come out to vote and protect their votes?
Not only that, if Okorocha exerts the muscle he showed in vanquishing PDP out of Douglas House in 2011, can Owerri stand the heat? Okorocha loves power, and will do all possible to avoid disgrace in 2015.
Another salient question is, must the candidate from Owerri come from only PDP? As it stands now the whole matter about the Owerri ambition seems to be tailored towards only candidates from PDP?
A situation PDP denies Owerri politician ticket, what happens? Can the zone look up to another Owerri son or daughter waving the flag of another party? What if all the parties or two parade Owerri candidates? Will there be a resolution to vote one and leave the other in order not to split Owerri votes? How will the abandoned candidate feel?
Has Owerri thought of a situation where political jobbers of Owerri extraction may be used to scuttle this ambition in 2015?
Infact, Owerri people need to have a deep thought over this dream and how to actualize it, but not press boasts of “if not Owerri in 2015, nothing”.
Imo belongs to all Imo citizens and they all have the constitutional rights to vote and be voted for.
What Owerri should realize is that as she plans and covets for the Imo Governorship in 2015, so also are other zones and groups plotting too.
And the emergence of Okorocha in 2011 seems to have rubbished the age long held doctrine of power rotation in the three zones of Orlu, Owerri and Okigwe. And the rotation agreement is limited to only to PDP as other political parties hardly observe it as APGA did in 2011.
Power is not given but grabbed or fought for. As Owerri enters the crucial part of the journey in the next few months, the chicken will soon come home to roost, and doubting Thomases are waiting to be proved wrong. But will Owerri prove them right or wrong? Time will tell.
