Three years to the 2015 Presidential contest in Nigeria, the South East geo political zone is in limbo. This report attempts to analyze factors militating in favour and against the Igbo Presidency Agenda
A dark cloud hovers on Igboland as uncertainty stares clearly on the faces of it leaders. The reasons for this development are not far fetched. Igbos are lost in the scramble to capture political power in 2015. Leaders in the region are undecided on what their next political move will be. There are indications that the body language of President Goodluck Jonathan over the 2015 presidential elections is affecting the psyche of political leaders in the South East.
Despite denials by the President’s aides that he is currently focused on the task of governance at the moment and not on issues pertaining to the presidential elections in three years time, most Igbo leaders have adopted a wait and see attitude, keeping mum on the much desired Nigerian president of Igbo extraction in 2015. Majority of Igbo leaders are in the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Aside this, the PDP has three South East Governors, while the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) has two State Governors in the zone.
ATITUDE OF SOME SOUTH EAST GOVERNORS
Jonathan…Yet to decide On 2015?
According to political pundits, the position of some South East Governors on the Igbo Presidency issue is suspect. It calls for concern and worry. Considering the vast support and power they wield in the region, the governor’s posture on the issue matters a lot. This is why the perceived conspiracy of silence of the governor is a food for thought. Sam Okoye, a political scientist in Enugu told this blog in an interview that the sealed lips of South East Governors on the issue is suspicious.
He said it is unfortunate that despite the fact it is clear it is the turn of the South East to produce the country’s next President in 2015; the conspiracy of silence by the South East Governors and other Igbo leaders on the subject is disheartening He said ‘It is a direct contrast to the position of their Northern counterparts. The Northern Governors under the auspices of Northern Governors Forum (NGF) few months ago stated that the presidency should move back to the North in 2015. That shows seriousness and commitment on their part to support the desire of their people. The Northern Governors have taken a stand, what is the stand or position of the governors of the South East. Why are they keeping sealed lips on the matter? Their position on this issue determines the success or failure of the project?’ However, several political permutations might be responsible for the cold approach of Igbo leaders and the governors towards the 2015 Igbo Presidency project.
Ernest Madugba, a political analyst attributed the non commitment to the project by the PDP South East Governors to what he described as politics of uncertainty. He said ‘They are playing what I call cautious politicking. They are being cautious. It is too early to expect them to take a position. The political scenario in the country is still foggy. Elections are in three years time, there are several political issues they may arise before then. And besides, must they be the ones to lead the campaign for an Igbo President. Must an Igbo become President on the platform of the PDP? What if President Jonathan decides to contest, does that not foreclose the chances of an Igbo picking the presidential ticket of the party. And besides where are Igbos that are interested in the contest? ’
Ndubuisi Amadi, a political analyst adds ‘we should not expect much from the PDP governors in the South East. If President Jonathan decides to run, what are their chances of supporting an Igbo for the presidency in PDP? Besides, the four governors are leaving. Peter Obi of Anambra State is leaving next year having completed his tenure. He is in APGA. Already he has called on Igbos to back Jonathan for the presidency in 2015. His position is clear. The other three PDP governors will tow the same line. They will want to install their successors and they need the party- the PDP- to do it for them. And knowing the way PDP play politics, they will certainly use the exit of the governors as bait for them(governors) to back whomever they give presidential flag of the party.
HURDLES BEFORE THE SOUTH EAST This blog observed that across the nooks and crannies of Igboland, it is only Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State that has said he is interested in the presidential contest. And to aid Okorocha’s aspiration, a group named C 21 believed to be strongly motivated by the Imo State Governor is alleged to be mobilising support for the Igbo Presidency agenda across the Niger. The group is led by Senator Annie Okonkwo. It was learnt that the group intends to broker alliances across the East as a basis to attract support for the project. How far the group will go in achieving its mission remains a political mirage considering the fact the North, and the South- South are strongly agitating for the presidency in 2015.
Last week, respected Ijaw leader, Chief Edwin Clark on behalf of South- South Elders called on called on President Goodluck Jonathan to run for the presidency for a second time. Clark has been seen as the unofficial spokesman of Mr. President in recent times. His view tends to reflect the mindset of Mr. President. Aside the South South who want Jonathan to re contest, the North is also ferociously demanding for the presidency in 2015, on the basis that in the spirit of rotational presidency it is in line with the tenets of equity and fairplay that power returns to the region since the South would have done a total of 12 years on the saddle since the time of Olusegun Obasanjo who ruled the nation for eight years.
Political observers therefore wonder where the South East zone will get the required handshake across the Niger to aid the success of its presidential intention. Hear Okoye again ‘where will the handshake come from. Who will shake hands with the east? Is it the North that has sworn to grab power? Is it the SouthWest that is likely to align where its political interest will be served, is the South South that has told their son, Jonathan to contest again’
Uweche, Ohaneze Leader… Mum is the word?
SOUTH WEST AS THE BEAUTIFUL BRIDE
If recent political permutations are anything to go by, then the South West geo political zone where the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) is in control may be disposed to partner with the North. The ACN control six States in the region and the overbearing influence of its leader, Bola Ahmed Tinubu determines to a huge extent the political direction of the zone in 2015. The party since inception has maintained a posture critical of the PDP led Federal Government of President Goodluck Jonathan.
Pundits therefore contend that having occupied the presidency for eight years, the South West has the option of assisting the North to capture power in 2015 with the anticipation that the North concedes power back to the region after four or eight years.
Chief Richard Uzodinma, a member of the ACN in Anambra State argued in favour of this position saying that the South West remains the beautiful bride in 2015. He added that it will be convenient for the North to parley with the South West to grab than work with the East. He said ‘it will be politically beneficial to the South West to partner with the North for the following reasons; the North is united in its quest to capture power. The South West is a united political entity. They have found political accommodation in the ACN, having successfully dismantled the PDP’s grip in the region. The ACN is in charge and they have streamlined the region to be on one page. Where do us, Igbos stand. We are divided. Where have we found political accommodation? Is it APGA that is in tatters, that has no total control of the South East? How can we realize this mission in 2015 when our leaders are not united and speaking from different sides of their mouth? Fred Ikeme, a blogger added ‘Besides, the North cannot align with the South East. They are also agitating for the same thing we are looking for. So, where does this leave us- Igbos. Certainly nowhere? Even if Igbos align with the North who will back down for the other. Who will produce the Presidential candidate and on which political platform’
ABSENCE OF POLITICAL PLATFORM The issue of political platform to realize the quest to produce an Igbo as president in 2015 has dominated discussions in Igbo political landscape. Many fault the capacity of a regional political party such as APGA that has only two states and domiciled in the South East to catapult an Igbo to Aso Rock.
Ernest Anuyo, political commentator told this blog that it is impossible for APGA or any other regional political party to single-handedly make an Igbo President in 2015. ‘APGA begins and ends in Igboland. It does not have the wherewithal to make anyone from Igboland President. It does not. It has no spread and national outlook’ Aside APGA, the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) has also been fingered as a political party that lacks the political wherewithal to catapult an Igbo to the presidency. The party which was rated the second largest opposition party after the 2007 general elections shrinked in size and shape in the last elections. The party on inception boasted of nine States, but presently controls three States namely Yobe, Borno and Zamfara.
However, analysts say that there is a flicker of hope in the party since the emergence of Former Governor of Old Abia State, Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, as its National Chairman.
Onu was in the news recently when he appealed to Igbos in Diaspora at the World Igbo Congress in the United States to embrace the ANPP as the only alternative political platform that can take Igbos to the Presidency. Hear Onu ‘For the Igbos to do well in politics, they should not put their eggs in one basket. What we have today is that most of the Igbo elite are in the ruling party. They believe that the ruling party is where the action is. This has its advantages. It certainly has many disadvantages’.
Umeh….Will an alliance aid APGA?
He continued ‘It is very important to always consider what happens in such a case if, for one reason or the other; the ruling party is unable to make available its platform? In that case every effort made, then comes to nothing. Should this be allowed to be so? No! The Igbos in politics should look beyond the ruling party. We should study the political terrain very carefully and take decisions which are in our own very best interest. We should always remember what our ancestors taught us, that when answering the call of nature, we should go with two pieces of sticks. If one falls by the wayside unnoticed, the other can still be relied upon to perform its duty when the need arises. The Igbos need an alternative political party that has a national reach and is not perceived by the general public as a regionally based party. The All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP, is that political party which the Igbos should embrace so that they can always make a viable choice. The Igbos need to diversify, as an insurance against the unknown and the unseen. For twelve years (1999 – 2011), the ANPP remained the second largest political party in the country. It initially controlled nine States of the Federation which spread across three geo-political zones of the country. It also controlled slightly above one quarter of the membership of the National Assembly. At that time, the party won elections at different levels from all parts of the country. Even though its fortune has declined, it now controls three States. Two of them are in the North East, while the third is in the North West. The ANPP has a Senator from Kogi State in North Central Nigeria and a Member of the House of Representatives from Ebonyi State in South East Nigeria’
Tinubu…Will his ACN align with the North?
ALLIANCE OF OPPOSITION PARTIES KEY TO IGBOS SUCCESS? While leaders of the region put on their thinking cap and strategize for the realization of Igbo Presidency, a school of thought contend that only an alliance of opposition political parties can transform the expectation of Igbos to reality.
Magnus Igwekala, a political scientist, postulates that only an alliance of opposition parties can give Igbos the much needed political strength to forge ahead. ‘Igbos needs an alliance, an alliance of political parties that can challenge the PDP. Based on the disposition of the ANPP recently, if it can enter an alliance with APGA, they can make the difference. Such an alliance will establish the much needed handshake across the Niger and give fillip to the Igbo Presidency agenda. The ANPP has its base in the North, while APGA is well rooted in the South East’ he stated. But for Obinna Uzodinma, ‘such an alliance will only have marginal advantages. How many States does ANPP and APGA control, a meagre five States. And what is the guarantee the PDP or any other political party will not grab the States in their kitty from them. Remember the PDP alone has 23 States in its kitty. Can’t you see that the ruling party will overwhelm such an alliance candidate? Victor Madumere, a journalist offers another dimension. He told this blog that an APGA/ANPP alliance will work, stating that the PDP will disintegrate when Jonathan declares to run for a second term. ‘PDP will crumble. There is an internal implosion looming in the party. By the time Jonathan tells us he wants to run, the aggrieved members especially those Governors in PDP that are desirous that an Northerner should take over in 2015 will embrace the alliance political party’ he concluded. 
