When the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, postponed the elections from February to March, it was as if the D-day would never approach again. Behold, tomorrow, Saturday, March 28, 2015, Nigerians will troop out in their numbers to vote for Presidential and National Assembly elections.
In Imo State, it will be a big battle among the contending political parties and their candidates. Beginning with the Senatorial seats, Imo has three Senatorial zones namely: Owerri, Okigwe and Orlu.
Apart from Owerri Senatorial seat which was lost to the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, in 2011 the other two zones were clinched by the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in the persons of Senator Marthew Nwagwu (Okigwe) and Senator Hope Uzodinma (Orlu). However, Senator Chris Anyanwu (Owerri) has since retraced her step back to the PDP.
Meanwhile, as the Imo electorate step out tomorrow, it seems that there would not be much upsets, as the coast looks as if the status quo of voting in these Senatorial Areas would not change much, although it will be a battle of titans.
Orlu Zone (Imo West):
In Orlu Senatorial Zone (Imo West), the fight is going to be a “do-or-die” affair, following the calibre of candidates jostling for the plum position.
On the card are Senator Hope Uzodinma of the PDP, Felix Idiga (JAFAC) of the Accord Party, Hon ThankGod Ezeani of APGA and Senator Osita Izunaso of the APC.
In all circumstances, the permutations revolve around the incumbent Senator, Hope Uzodinma, and the immediate past Senator of the zone, Osita Izunaso. Although there seems to be a gang up against Hope Uzodinma following his arrogance on the seat, as if he can win the Orlu Senatorial seat at his own wish, yet the Omuma, Oru East-born philanthropist will scale through. But definitely, he is going to have a fight of his life returning to the seat.
Despite the tight situation he faces, Uzodinma in the end will dislodge Izunaso, Idiga and Ezeani, using his usual political manoeuvring and goodwill among the youths of Orlu zone.
Therefore, Izunaso, Idiga and Ezeani will lose their deposits, not that they are not good for Orlu, but only that Orlu people may not jettison Uzodinma now for any of the trio.
Owerri Zone (Imo East):
In Owerri Senatorial Zone (Imo East), the fight may not generate too much tension because all those vying for the Seat this time are moderates and no heavyweights in Owerri politics, forget the positions they are gunning for.
It is going to be a three-way race between Hon Samuel Anyanwu (PDP), Hon Uche Onyeagocha (APC) and Chief Paschal Nneji of APGA. Hon Kelechi Nwagwu of ACORD and Chief Chris Anele are there to make up the list, unless the unthinkable happens.
On paper, Hon Samuel Anyanwu is tipped to carry the day. But this can only be a prediction until the last vote is counted. Ordinarily, Hon SamDaddy is the most liked among the candidates, but Chief Paschal Nneji of APGA will make or mar Anyanwu’s chances, as there is the fear that the Mbaise nation as usual, may conspire at the last minute to identify with their son, Nneji.
Therefore, the prayer in the Anyanwu camp should be that Mbaise plays to party affiliation here than to ethnic leaning. Should Aboh, Ahiazu and Ezinihitte Mbaise throw away party loyalty and pour their votes as they did to Senator Chris Anyanwu when she vied under APGA in 2011, then there is trouble for Anyanwu who is from Mbaike; made up of Ikeduru and Mbaitoli LGAs.
The Governorship candidate of APGA, Captain Emmanuel Ihenacho is from core Owerri, that is Owerri Municipal, West and North LGAs. He would want to at least make impact in these LGAs for his party candidate.
Hon Uche Onyeagocha of APC is also from core Owerri and may try to sweep whatever votes he can get from his kith and kins. Under this circumstance, what would remain for the PDP candidate?
However, since wishes are not horses, Hon Anyanwu of the PDP can still upturn bookmakers’ prediction by using the Emeka Ihedioha factor and clear the Mbaise and Ngor-Okpala axis, which have identified with Anyanwu and the PDP.
Indeed the Owerri Senatorial race is dicey but in the end, either of Anynwu or Nneji will carry the day. And it depends on who protects his votes more. But l tip Anyanwu.
Okigwe Zone (Imo North):
The Senatorial race for Okigwe (Imo North) is too close to call. In fact, the three major contenders have many things going for them. Chief Athan Achonu of the PDP is a Business Mogul with deep pockets with a cult followership among the Youths of Okigwe who he has used his stupendous wealth to touch their lives.
Chief Clement Owunna of APGA is a renowned Industrialist and money bag, whose foray into the politics of Imo State has changed the political permutations of Okigwe and Onuimo LGAs, who see Owunna as liberator of the oppressed axis of Okigwe Zone. He is youthful and intelligent, whose mien attracts hoards of followers.
It is even said that some PDP chieftains from Okigwe Zone are rooting for his victory to tame Achonu, whose political rise and financial clout is giving some “Big men” in the area sleepless nights.
Therefore, Owunna is seen as that calm and cool-headed “Senator” who can be easily controlled than the “One-Arm General”.
Then there is Hon Ben Uwajumogu, the Speaker of Imo House of Assembly, who is from a well-known political family in Ihitte Uboma. Uwajumogu has used his current position to help a myriad of families across Imo State, but particularly in his catchment Area, where the thousands he empowered are ready to commit suicide for this heavily built man who gives without measure.
Under the aforementioned scenario, it is abundantly clear that the Okigwe Senatorial seat will be a fight to finish. More interesting is that each of the candidates is too optimistic of clinching the coveted diadem. So, the question now is, who carries the day?
It is very difficult to predict. But in the end, barring sabotage and political betrayal, PDP’s Achonu is tipped to win. But if there is any slip, Owunna is there to take it, while Uwajumogu may also like to use Government influence to muzzle his way through. It is very tough and hazy.
HOUSE OF REPS
Isiala Mbano/Okigwe/Onuimo Fed House Seat:
There are plethora of candidates of various political parties jostling for the position. But I can only mention those likely to make impact or win the race.
Hon Matthew Omegara (APC), Engr Onwubuariri Obinna (PDP), Princess Miriam Onuoha (APGA) and Chuk Chukwuemeka (PPA).
The incumbent House Member, Hon Omegara has remained anonymous and total failure in the Federal House for Eight years now. He has taken the Federal Constituency for granted, but he will meet his electoral waterloo on Saturday.
Princess Onuoha is a beautiful woman, but this race is not hinged on natural beauty but on political pedigree and clout. However, unless she hangs on the goodwill of Chief Clement Owunna’s political family for survival. But it looks difficult.
Chuk Chukwuemeka of PPA will not make it. But he would be counted as having contested the 2015 Federal House election.
The man to beat is Engr Obinna Onwubuariri. His youthfulness and innocent demeanour are the selling points which has been melting the hearts of even the most hard-hearted of the Federal Constituency.
How he trounced more established politicians to pick the PDP ticket has remained a mystery to many. It is the same magic that will skyrocket him to his political utopia after Saturday. PDP will clinch this one. But it will not be easy, though.
Ehime Mbano/Ihitte Uboma/Obowo:
This is a two-Horse race between (Mrs) Blessing Ifenyinwa Nwaoba (Lady B) of the PDP and Hon Chike John Okafor. Other candidates are pretenders. However, the PDP has to watch it or lose the constituency as Chike Okafor of the APC who has recently run into stupendous wealth is busy “redistributing” it among the poor and youths of the constituency to the extent that the masses of the Area are wondering when the tap water of his wealth will run dry. For using his wealth to touch the lives of the masses, he has turned to a password to many people whose means of livelihood now depends on this former Commissioner of Finance.
The only obstacle and challenge the PDP has in this Federal Constituency is to stop the foray this former Banker is making into the nooks and crannies, with old politicians of the zone looking with mouth agape in wonder.
Except the unexpected happens, Okafor may run away with victory to the detriment of other political parties.
The problem the PDP has in this Constituency is that the Candidate, Mrs Nwaoba seems to have been imposed on the party hierarchy in the area, which left out more grounded PDP Aspirants, who are home-grown and have paid their political dues for years, only to be dislodged by an “Abuja Candidate”. Except the situation changes before tomorrow, PDP should prepare for failure here.
Ahiazu Mbaise/Ezinihitte Mbaise:
This one looks easy for the PDP and its Candidate, Hon Nnanna Igbokwe. Although there is Hon Mrs Adaku Ihuoma of the APC, many citizens of the Constituency prefer Nnanna Igbokwe to Ihuoma. She carries a lot of Baggage as far as Mbaise people are concerned. She is yet to wriggle out from the contentious Abortion Law, which motion she moved in the House of Assembly.
Although the Law has been abrogated, she is yet to come out of the stigma, coupled with the way and manner she dumped the PDP and joined APC on the floor of the Chamber.
However, not all members of the Constituency love Nnanna Igbokwe, not that he is not doing well as a Lawmaker, but out of envy and jealousy.
Following this, there is a wide conspiracy to stop the youthful Lawmaker from going to Abuja again.
Owerri Municipal/Owerri North/Owerri West:
The race here is close and hazy to predict. The reason is because any of the candidates could clinch it. But it will not be outside Hon Dan Ikpeazu (APGA), Chief Celestine Ololo (APC), Hon Ezenwa Onyewuchi of the PDP and Hon Ernest Ibejiako of SDP.
Hon Dan Ikepeazu is the man to watch. The reason is that the Federal Constituency is the catchment Area of APGA and again, the Governorship Candidate of APGA is from the Area and would want to create a political impact by winning his own Area, even if no other place.
However, Hon Ezenwa Onyewuchi, who left APGA for the PDP this time around, won the election in 2011 under APGA platform. He is the incumbent Lawmaker of the Constituency and is also favoured to win.
But the only problem confronting Onyewuchi is the accusation that he is arrogant and floats with the political elites of the Constituency, instead of looking down and embracing the common people who wield the electoral value more than the Big men.
Despite these pitfalls, Ezenwa can return to the House if he plays his cards well. He has the financial muscle to outwit his fellow contenders, if push comes to shove.
Hon Ernest Ibejiako is another factor in the election. A former National Assembly Member, Ibejiakor is loved by both women and men of the constituency, who hail him with chants of Nwandaa! Nwandaa!, wherever he goes.
But the only snag with his ambition this time is the party under which he is pursuing the plan. SDP is not known around here, and Imo electorate have not grown to the level of deciphering which political party SDP is, from the common ones like APGA, PDP and APC.
Chief Celestine Ololo of APC is an in-law of the Governor of Imo State, Owelle Rochas Okorocha, whose rise to present political status was masterminded by his in-law. Okorocha was the one who shut out other Aspirants and handed Ololo the ticket. How he is going to manipulate the electorate in the Area to vote for Ololo is the magic Okorocha is going to divulge to the people of Owerri.
Orlu/Oru East/Orsu:
This war is between the incumbent, Hon Jerry Alagboso (Asiwaju) of the PDP and Hon Stan Dara of the APC. However, Alagboso will whip Dara silly. Apart from having learnt the ropes with four years in the National Assembly, the electorate in the Constituency root for Alagboso because of his philanthropy, not that he has done much since he assumed that office.
Dara will certainly give Alagboso a fight of his life, but he cannot beat the former Customs Officer in this race. So, give it to the PDP.
Nkwerre/Isu/Nwangele/Njaba:
Hon Jones Onyeriri of the PDP has shamed all those who held this position before he came to the scene in 2011. The youthful Lawmaker has done a lot to warrant an easy sail back to Abuja, yet the elites of the Constituency do not want to hear about Jones going back to the Green Chamber.
He faced a stiff opposition during the primary but scaled through despite conspiracies against him. He is going to cross the hurdle during the election proper, but he has to watch it.
The only obstacle standing between Onyeriri and victory tomorrow is Evangelist Ikoku (Ajasi) of the ACCORD Party. All those gunning for Onyeriri’s head have found a base to launch for a pound of flesh using Ikoku’s platform.
Whether Onyeriri’s antagonists will succeed needs to be seen between today and Sunday. But one thing tells me that Onyeriri will shame his enemies once again.
Mbaitoli/Ikeduru:
This is a one-way traffic. Chief Henry Nwawuba is coasting home seamlessly. But it is an election and therefore should not take anything for granted.
Ideato North/South:
Here, the battle will be among Emeka Diwe (APGA), Hon (Mrs) Pat Udogu and Austin Chukwukere (APC). But Mrs Udogu will dust her rivals. However, the popularity of Emeka Diwe, who was a former Chairman of President Generals of Communities in Imo State, is a problem.
The grassroots politician has much goodwill. Therefore, if Udogu misses it, Diwe is there to make hay.
However, despite the fact that Owelle Rochas Okorocha is from this area, and would ensure that his party wins, the APC candidate is not much known among the electorate.
Aboh Mbaise/Ngor Okpala:
This is a straight race between Hon Bede Eke of the PDP and Chief Mathew Nwogu of the APC.
While Nwogu may make much impact in the Ngor Okpala axis of the Constituency, Bede Ekeh will use Emeka Ihedioha to sweep the Mbaise axis, which may give him victory. It is going to be a tight affair.
Since no candidate of any political party emerged from Aboh Mbaise, that area will be the shopping ground.
There is Hon Blyden Amajironwu of APGA. He certainly will not make it, but may deny other candidates the votes from his Area, Ward 1, Ngor Okpala, which is the largest Ward in the Area.
Another young guy who will show up is John Jude Uchenna Okere, who moved to Labour Party after APGA denied him ticket.
Hon Austin Oguguo of ACCORD is a serial election contestant, whose ideology of politics is yet to be grasped by Ngor Okpala electorate. Since 1999, he has contested all elections and was a thorn in the flesh of Rt Hon Emeka Ihedioha for the years he was in the House of Representatives. In fact, Oguguo still has a law suit against Ihedioha years after elections have been won and lost.
As it stands now, Bede Ekeh is tipped to come out tops after the hostilities, but it is going to be by a slim margin.
Frankly speaking, if Saturday election goes free and fair, many will be shocked with the results, this is because most Imo electorate are going to vote persons than party.
After twelve years of non-stop democracy in the country, the electorate are getting wiser. This is the reason the campaigns this time was fierce and tough.
Politicians are beginning to realise that time has come when you cannot seat down in your Bed room and write election results and compel the masses to swallow it hook, line and sinker.
All said and done, let there be peaceful election for the electorate to genuinely elect their preferred candidates and for democracy to deepen in the land.
