I have witnessed many elections and campaigns in my life time. I remember the Alhaji Shehu Shagari days, when as kids, we watched the electorate go and cast their votes at the Okwe court, located opposite my Grand father’s compound in today’s Umuechem Umuhu, of Ward 9 in Ngor Okpala LGA. Honestly speaking, I could not decipher what those people were going there to do only that I discovered that their thumps were full of black inks.
I remember also about, the story of Chief Arthur Nzeribe, who was said to be throwing money from a Helicopter from the air. I can also remember about the death of “Nwaeruru” Mbakwe.
Mbakwe we heard on Imo Broadcasting Service IBS, was contesting with Nwakama Okoro, Steve Evulocha, Basil Nnanna Ukaegbu and the rest to be the Governor of Imo state.
By the time Chief Achike Udenwa contested election in 1999, I had become very aware politically. That of Enwerem before Udenwa, I could not because I did not understand what president Babangida was up to, and therefore not interested.
But in 2011, I was not only interested, but an active participant because “I was involved”. Don’t misunderstand me. I have been following Nigerian politics for years not as a participant. All I did before was to simply cast my vote and go home, but not partisan as to work for any candidate.
In 2011, the elections in Imo state was not easy. If not, Imo for the first time in its history could not have had “supplementary election” added to its political lexicon. Before, it would have been a “carry go” election. But 2011 redesigned political equation of Imo state, especially the Governorship election.
Therefore, from all indicators, what happened in 2011 will be a child’s play to compare what will happen in Imo state in 2015 election.
And there are many factors for this. Majorly, the Imo electorate are getting sophisticated by the day. And secondly, the main political parties that will participate in the elections will have balance of power. It is not going to be 60%-30%-10% thing. Rather, uncertainty will pervade the air as the electorate and party members wait for final results.
From my Crystal Ball, I visualize where three strong parties will emerge in Imo state as we move on to the election period.
These parties are the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, All Progressive Congress, APC and All Progress Grand Alliance, APGA.
Whether you accept it or not, the PDP is the most populated party in Imo state. How PDP carries itself high because it holds power at the centre, and commands huge fellowership is what rankles it opposers. In politics, number is it. So, nobody should begrudge PDP its confidence.
All Progressive Congress will not be a push-over in the next election in Imo state because it is the party in power at the centre, and controls some LGAs through its members in the House of Assembly and the Sole Administrators. It also includes Governor Rochas Okorocha’s CGC.
APGA, we all know, always “manufactures” members spontaneously, when push turns to shove. Igbos, no matter what anybody may say, see APGA as the only political party that represents the former Biafran enclave in the real sense of things in Nigeria Federation
That is the reason if you go round the rural areas of Imo state, you may not see many people carrying APGA registration cards. Yet, when come, comes to become (apology K.O) APGA voters will spring from everywhere.
Therefore, under the scenario I just analyzed, can anybody swear that the forthcoming elections will be a tea party in Imo state?
For starters, the PDP is very strong in Imo state, and have been in power since 1999, except for just between 2011 to 2015 it lost power. Therefore, PDP is no push-over in Imo state. Even if other states embrace other parties, it cannot happen in Imo, as PDP is already entrenched in the state, right from the ward levels.
Despite the fact that APC is incharge of Government in the state, nearly all the members are of PDP stock, who moved to join Okorocha in APGA in 2011 to fight PDP for one reason or the other. Even Okoocha himself is a PDP man.
Therefore, in 2015, PDP will do everything constitutionally to win not only the Governorship election, but other elections and take over Imo political environment once more.
PDP will do this with all seriousness having seen the fortune of its members, and the entire Imo populace in the hand of Okorocha. For the first time, Imo PDP members saw what it means to be in opposition, and worse, the kind of Okorocha’s opposition where it completely shut everybody out of “jollification”, except for his close friends, inlaws and relations.
PDP is envisaging the level of poverty that will ravage its members and the state, if it spends another four years in the hands of Okorocha, who believes it is better to construct Halls, round-abouts, Squares and Gardens, while the citizen die of hunger.
Therefore, PDP will put everything it in the battle has to “rescue” itself from Okorocha’s “Rescue Mission”. Whoever says it is going to be a war in Imo is not mistaking!
And the big question is, will Okorocha stand, with hands akimbo and allow power to be taken away from him on a platter of Gold, whether he is running or not? And the Answer is a big No.
Okorocha will do every in the books and out of it to retain power in Imo state, either in person, or by planting a stooge in office.
And if I have studied Okorocha enough, I predict that he will give the election all it can take to make sure that his prodigee is left in Douglas House, that is, if the kite of presidency flies.
Okorocha knows that he has marched on many toes, stuck-pilled wealths from the Government Coffers, has a tomorrow which may haunt him if care is not taken, and therefore is very ready to give whoever, or which party dares to confront him in 2015.
Holy Moses! For those who will be a life by the Grace of God, it will be tough. And rough. Never before in the history of Imo state has election ever seemed this 50-50!
Now talking about APGA. I see a situation where-by APGA may not file a guber candidate , until APC and PDP were done. In this case, with the array of stars PDP is parading as Guber Aspirants, there may be an implosion after primaries in the party, if things are not handled properly.
APGA may capitalize on whatever crises that may erupt in PDP and APC to its own advantage. For instance, if PDP fails to produce an Owerri candidate as generally agigated in many quarters, APGA may “capture” one fine Owerri Candidate, and this definitely will change the political equation, as the plot may become a case of conscience and clan.
Apart from this, APGA, which Okorocha rose to power with, but abandoned midstream for APC, must at least to have a pound of its flesh, become a spoiler.
Since Anambra state will not be having gubernatorial election in 2015, I see all those Anambra political heavy weights whom Governor Okorocha have been calling names lately, storming Owerri for a pay-back journey.
However, it is now a challenge for all the political parties to go back to the drawing board and perfect plans on how to appeal to the people’s conscience during the campaigns, and the election proper.
For the PDP, the equation still tilts towards its side, that is, if they put their house in order.
Many people believe that APC is a Yoruba/Hausa party, and therefore sceptic of its activities. But with Okorocha in control of the state coffers and power of incumbency, any thing happen. Much as Imo electorate are intelligent and enlightened, but the gullible once are still many.
Any internal squabble this period within the Imo PDP will take time to be resolved amicably as the elections approach. The party should think dip, and learn from its mistakes. It should also realize that alternative parties are abound, and rather throw out, should bring in all members back, because politics is a game of number, and local also.
Politics is local because the day of election, each person, no matter how highly placed you are, is only entitled to his/her one vote, and polling booth.
PDP should watch it. PDP should also realise that there are some LGAs that it needs to do more work than in others for instance, there are some LGAs in Imo state that are entirely a PDP catchment Area, but in some, other partiers are already making incursions, due to PDP members who joined such parties, or that leaders there are not working hard.
For APC, the only albatross it has in Imo is the accusation that it a “foreign” party. The party needs bags of Omo to clean off this grave allegation before the election sets in.
Another problem with APC is the man leading it; Owelle Rochas Okorocha. Many of those who worked for him in 2011 say they have nothing to show for their sacrifices, therefore, their apprehension now is that after building APC with Okorocha, will he not throw them away as he did to them after the 2011 successful battle?
Again, Imo believes that Okorocha may have built one or two roads with round-abouts and Halls, but the elites say that what is on ground does not correspond with the huge funds of the LGAs, which have been cornered to the centre in Owerri since 2011, leaving the rural areas in comatose state.
Therefore, it is left for Okorocha to address these issues, or assume that with power of incumbency, all things are possible. However, he should realize that it was an incumbent he dislodged in 2011.
APGA should remember that Dim Odimegwu Chukwuemeka Ojukwu the Ikemba Nnewi, the name they used as a common brand is gone. Ojukwu was the sentiment APGA usually threw at Ndigbo. Therefore 2015, is for APGA to work hard and bring out money. You cannot do politics without money. Can you send your wife to market without giving her money?
If you are not a millionaire, comfortable and with good back ground you cannot be an American President.
Unfortunately, we misunderstand the use of money in Nigerian politics, simply because our leaders misuse its objectives.
For instance, you don’t invite people to your house without welcoming them with food and drinks. And if you can afford (logistics) which is transport fare, it is no problem. But when one quarantines a people inside a room and pays them a certain amount to do certain assignments for him, it becomes bribe.
If APGA thinks politics is about begging the masses by standing them on empty stomach at Dan Anyanwu stadium for hours. It will not work again this time.
Let all political parties in Imo go back to the drawing board and apply that is necessary to win an election free and fair. The journey to 2015 looks tough and rough in deed.
